500–1 TPC Deere Run Upset Possible Based On Weak Field

Betting On Long Shots Based On Wedge Play At TPC Deere Run

The best bet at the John Deere Classic is to bet based on wedge play.
Long shots Joshua Creel(+50000) and Wesley Bryan(+20000) hold substantial leads over the field in wedge play statistics.
No golfers at TPC Deere Run are ranked within the top 50 of the World Golf Rankings, meaning this may be the best week to bet on long shots.

SILVIS, Ill. – TPC Deere Run tees off of Thursday with a relatively weak field that may feature some of the best betting values of the year on the PGA Tour.

John Deere Classic Favorites

Webb Simpson +1200
Adam Hadwin +1600
Sahith Theegala +2200
Maverick McNealy +2800
Patrick Rodgers +2800

Betting On Wedge Play

According to Greg DuCharme, the most common variable amongst previous winners at the John Deere Classic has been wedge play.

At the John Deere Classic, there is one common thread to success. Good wedge play.

Perhaps this is why Steve Stricker, Zach Johnson and Jordan Spieth have also excelled here.

It’s a unique week on the PGA Tour schedule, and it’s time to take advantage.

— Greg DuCharme (@therealGFD) June 28, 2022

Wedge play is categorized as any shot between 50-125 yards, with rankings based on the average distance the ball is to the hole. Ranking golfers in this week’s field reveals four golfers in the top five that have sports betting odds that are 100-1 or longer, including Joshua Creel who is the leader in wedge play at the event who has +50000 odds.

Wedge Play Rankings At The John Deere Classic

Average Distance

Joshua Creel
15′ 1″

Wesley Bryan
15′ 6″

Scott Piercy
16′ 7″

Brendon Todd

Chase Seiffert

Creel and Wesley Bryan(+20000) rank third and fourth overall on the PGA Tour this season in wedge play, with Scott Piercy (+10000) the next closest John Deer Classic participant ranked 13th.

Weaker Field At TPC Deere Run

The overall field at TPC Deere Run may be conducive to a large upset winner such as Creel or Bryan because of a relatively weak field. No golfer this week ranks within the top 50 of the World Golf Rankings.


Webb Simpson

Sahith Theegala

Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Adam Hadwin

Maverick McNealy

With a wide open participant pool, and long shots holding substantial leads in wedge play, the best bet at the John Deere Classic may involve sprinkling some bets on Joshua Creel and Wesley Bryan who both offer payouts of at least 200-1.

News tags: golf | John Deere Classic | Joshua Creel | PGA Tour | Wesley Bryan

Brett Crown

Brett is a passionate sports writer who majored in Sport Management at Florida State University. He combines his knowledge of stats with his understanding of game theory to find the best values when sports betting. Brett enjoys golfing, playing cornhole, and hanging out by the pool when he’s not locked in watching games.


Author: Jeffrey Fisher