Legal sportsbooks have Luis Diaz’s shot attempts prop at 2.5, despite him leading the starters in shots per 90 minutes.
PARIS – The UEFA Champions League final kicks off on Saturday between Real Madrid and Liverpool.
Liverpool comes into the match as the favorite after dominant performances in the semi-finals against Villareal and the quarterfinals against Benfica.
Champions League Final Match Odds (No Draw Bet)
Real Madrid +150
Betting Liverpool ML Best Bet Of The Final
Those betting on the soccer have long gained an edge when betting based on expected goals and goals allowed instead of the actual goals and goals allowed. Comparing Liverpool’s and Real Madrid’s expected statistics shows that Liverpool is a much more complete squad than Real Madrid.
Consider the expected goals allowed and scored since the start of the UEFA Champions League Quarterfinals (32 squads).
Expected Statistical Differences Between Liverpool And Real Madrid
Expected Goals Per Match
Expected Goals Per Match Rank
Expected Goals Allowed Per Match
Expected Goals Allowed Per Match Rank
Those statistics suggest that bets on Real Madrid are based more on their name than actual substance.
With that in mind, taking Liverpool -180 seems to be the best bet for the UEFA Champions League final because they have both a better defense and offense.
Best Prop Bet On The Champions League Final
Mohamed Salah does not lead Liverpool in shot attempts per 90 minutes amongst their expected starters, that is Luis Diaz. With the expectation in mind, it makes little sense that his shot attempts player prop is only at 2.5.
Luis Diaz Shot Attempts Player Prop
Over 2.5 +120
Under 2.5 -157
Taking the juice offered by legal sportsbooks on Luis Diaz’s shot attempts prop bet is backed by his shot attempts per 90 minutes rate of 5.06.
If he reaches just three this bet would hit, and that would be considerably below his average. Bets on Liverpool moneyline and the over for Luis Diaz shots may be the best way to bet on the Champions League final.
News tags: Liverpool | Luis Diaz | Mohamed Salah | Real Madrid | soccer
Brett is a passionate sports writer who majored in Sport Management at Florida State University. He combines his knowledge of stats with his understanding of game theory to find the best values when sports betting. Brett enjoys golfing, playing cornhole, and hanging out by the pool when he’s not locked in watching games.