A recent poll of writers and dominant performance made Nikola Jokic the odds-on leader for MVP.
Voting on Jokic does not indicate recency bias, it is a vote on a dominant statistical campaign.
DENVER – Nikola Jokic has now overtaken Joel Embiid for MVP front-runner, with the NBA regular season finish line now in view. The MVP is a regular season-only award, and the front runners must put the finishing touches on their potential MVP campaigns by April 10th.
Current NBA MVP betting odds indicate that it is a three-man race between Nikola Jokic, Joel Embiid, and Giannis Antetokounmpo.
NBA Regular Season MVP Odds
Nikola Jokic -180
Joel Embiid +140
Giannis Antetokounmpo +900
Luka Doncic +6600
Devin Booker +10000
Jayson Tatum +10000
Odds Shift Indicitave Of Recent Events
Nikola Jokic was an underdog to win MVP just two days ago, at least according to legal online sportsbooks.
That very day, Tuesday, March 29th, ESPN put out a “straw poll” featuring 100 national NBA media members. The results saw first-place votes split between Jokic(62), Embiid(29), and Antetokounmpo(9).
That poll may have been influenced by how Jokic had performed the night before against the Charlotte Hornets when he had 26 points, 19 rebounds, and 11 assists for his NBA-leading 19th triple-double of his season.
In fact, this is the only time this season that Jokic has been the front-runner to repeat as MVP this season. Neither Jokic, Embiid, or Giannis came into the season as the favorite for league MVP, that was actually Luka Doncic at +440.
How MVP Odds Have Changed Throughout The Season
Date:
Nikola Jokic:
Joel Embiid:
Giannis Antetokounmpo:
October 15th, 2021
+1050
+800
+750
November 17th, 2021
+1400
+1850
+700
December 17th, 2021
+650
+3450
+725
January 18th, 2022
+345
+1350
+340
February 17th, 2022
+345
+143
+405
March 22nd, 2022
+150
-158
+950
March 31st, 2022
-180
+140
+900
Statistics Show Close Race, With Notable Edge For Jokic
MVP voting is all about splitting hairs, and it is not meant to diminish the seasons any of the players have had so far.
There are a couple of advantages for Nikola Jokic that may give him a slight edge relative to Joel Embiid and Giannis Antetokounmpo:
Availability: Jokic has played in eight games more than either player. Denver has five games remaining, Philadelphia and Milwaukee both have seven.
Passing: Already regarded as the greatest passing big man of all time, Jokic is averaging eight assists per game compared to 5.8 for Giannis and 4.3 for Embiid.
Comparing The Season-Long Averages Of Top Candidates
Date:
Nikola Jokic:
Joel Embiid:
Giannis Antetokounmpo:
Games Played
70
62
62
Minutes
33.2
33.5
32.8
Points
26.5
13.6
29.9
Rebounds
13.6
11.4
11.6
Assists
8.0
4.3
5.8
Steals
1.4
1.2
1
Blocks
0.9
1.4
1.5
Historic seasons by Joel Embiid and Giannis Antetokounmpo have been incredible, but the odds indicate that Nikola “The Joker” Jokic will have the last laugh and take home the NBA MVP trophy for a second straight year.
Brett is a passionate sports writer who majored in Sport Management at Florida State University. He combines his knowledge of stats with his understanding of game theory to find the best values when sports betting. Brett enjoys golfing, playing cornhole, and hanging out by the pool when he’s not locked in watching games.
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