NBA Draft Odds Shift Increases Value In Betting Jabari Smith

NBA Draft Odds Shifting Less Than One Week Before Draft

Jabari Smith Jr

NBA draft odds line movements have caused significant changes to Jabari Smith(-430 to -165) and Chet Holmgren(+330 to +125) over the past two weeks.
That odds movement may offer value for bettors on Smith because of his reported excellent workout with the Magic and Chet’s desire to play for the Thunder.
As Smith’s odds are now, betting on him to be the first pick would come with the second-largest payout of the last five years behind only Anthony Edwards(-125) in 2020.
If Jabari’s odds continue to drop, he would likely become the first overall pick with the shortest odds since 2013 when Anthony Bennet(+500) was the surprise top pick.

BROOKLYN, N.Y. – The NBA Draft is less than a week away, and oddsmakers are making payouts for presumptive favorite Jabari Smith (-165) odds larger than have been since the NBA Draft Lottery.

NBA Draft Odds Movement

June 3rd Odds
June 17th Odds

Jabari Smith

Chet Holmgren

Paolo Banchero

Jaden Ivey

Shaedon Sharpe

NBA sportsbooks changed the betting odds for both Jabari Smith and Chet Holmgren drastically over the past two weeks. Those odds changes are surprising because it was reported that Jabari Smith had a great workout with the Orlando Magic.

Reports have also suggested that Chet Holmgren may rather play for the Oklahoma City Thunder, holders of the second overall pick, than the Magic.

“I’ve been told this is where [Holmgren’s agent] and Chet want to go. They want to go to Oklahoma City.”@ryenarussillo and @Sam_Vecenie break down why Chet Holmgren is a perfect fit for OKC:

— The Ringer (@ringer) June 16, 2022

Holmgren is the betting favorite at -160 to be selected second overall by the Thunder. With all the smoke around Jabri to the Magic and Chet to the Thunder, it seems that sportsbooks may have made a mistake in shortening Jabari’s first overall pick odds.

Historical Significance Of The Line Shift

Over the past five NBA Drafts, only Anthony Edwards (-125) has had shorter odds than Jabari Smith currently has to go number one.

First Overall Pick Odds – Past Five Seasons

Draft Class
Top Pick

Cade Cunningham

Anthony Edwards

Zion Williamson

Deandre Ayton

Markelle Fultz

With Jabari Smith’s odds trending towards getting shorter there is even a chance they become shorter than Edwards’ back in 2020.

News tags: Anthony Bennett | Anthony Edwards | Chet Holmgren | Jabari Smith | NBA | NBA Draft | Nerlens Noel | Oklahoma City Thunder | Orlando Magic

Brett Crown

Brett is a passionate sports writer who majored in Sport Management at Florida State University. He combines his knowledge of stats with his understanding of game theory to find the best values when sports betting. Brett enjoys golfing, playing cornhole, and hanging out by the pool when he’s not locked in watching games.


Author: Jeffrey Fisher