Written by Watt_05
The biggest game of the weekend is in Cincinnati, OH (I can’t even believe we’re saying that honestly).
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We dissected the biggest matchup advantages on each side of the ball in the breakdown below and point out where the market could be headed for this one. As always we’ve included look ahead numbers for next week even if a handful of games are currently off the board.
Kansas City Team Total Over 27.5(-115) at Cincinnati:
The Chiefs opened -4 for their road trip to take on the AFC North leader Cincinnati Bengals. Total popped at a surprisingly low 47. Immediately we saw both Chiefs money and over money pushing the side out to -5.5 and total to 49.5 by Wednesday afternoon. The general public fell in love with Joe Burrow’s gaudy stat line against the Ravens; professional bettors weren’t as convinced.
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Kansas City, despite a very rocky start, has again reminded everyone why they’re one of the league’s top teams. The offense has consistently moved the ball all year however they’ve finally cut down on the turnovers that plagued them early in the season. Since they’ve cleaned up the turnover issues Kansas City is #1 in offensive success rate lead by a passing offense currently pacing the league. The Chiefs will be at full strength on the offensive side of the ball with Travis Kelce and Lucas Niang returning from the Covid list.
Play Efficient and Play Fast
The other nice part about backing this Chiefs team total is the pace of play. KC is 4th in both 1st half pace as well as neutral game state pace, and even are 8th in pace when they have a lead of 7+. They’ll go up against a Bengals defense that, despite having decent success rate numbers, is vastly overrated. Cincinnati is 24th in defensive pass rush win rate and 25th in defensive run stop win rate. They lose LB Germaine Pratt to the covid list which creates a major void in the LB core. The Bengals are hopeful that LB Logan Wilson can come back this week but it’s doubtful he’ll be anywhere close to 100% if he does go.
1 if by Land, 7 if by Air
Last week 3rd string QB Josh Johnson threw for over 300 yards…Jimmy Garoppolo threw for 296 three weeks ago…Justin Herbert threw for 317 before that. So yea, facing KC could be a real problem. Also let’s not forget Mike White torched this secondary for over 400 yards and 3 touchdowns earlier this season. Patrick Mahomes and company could and should have an absolute field day with an aerial assault.
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When it comes to the other side of the ball we know that the weakest part of this Cincinnati team is the offensive line That group currently grades out 30th in pass block win rate. The Chiefs are loaded along the defensive line and have enough talent at corner and safety to match-up with the Bengals outstanding offensive weapons. KC is 10th in defensive pass rush win rate and it wouldn’t shock me in the least to see them create some short fields for this Chiefs offense. Casual fans have conveniently forgotten that Joe Burrow is now tied for most interceptions thrown in the NFL. I envision this Chiefs Team Total to close north of 28 come kickoff.
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Week 18 Look-Ahead Lines (FanDuel Sportsbook):
Chicago at Minnesota-5.5
Indianapolis-9.5 at Jacksonville
NY Jets at Buffalo-17
Washington-4 at NY Giants
New Orleans-3.5 at Atlanta
Dallas-3.5 at Philadelphia
Pittsburgh at Baltimore-6
Cincinnati at Cleveland-1
Seattle at Arizona-5
San Francisco at LA Rams-6
LA Chargers-2.5 at Las Vegas
*5 games are off the board currently.